April marks the start of the second quarter as well as the start of the new financial year for many and while the Ukraine crisis has thrown up new challenges – not least in eating as well as heating – most of the issues we now face were already underway and have just been accelerated by the events and the responses to them.

Disinflation is over, deleveraging the financial system could be next.

Amid all the discussions about the sanctions – and counter sanctions- against Russia, an extremely important issue is rearing its head; what is the future of the Petro-Dollar?

Much as we like to attribute moves in markets to ‘the news’, more often than not it is the more prosaic elements of portfolio rebalancing and dealer positioning that are the actual driving forces. Post the latest option expiry, this certainly seems to be the case as we explain in a short post.

”Beware the Ides of March”. There is no reason to feel a bit nervous about the date as President Zelensky addresses a Senate, just as Caesar did on this day in 44 BC, other than the fact that those...