Market Thinking looks for how the behaviour of short term traders can spill over into the actions of medium term asset allocators and ultimately long term investors. Right now, we are watching the behaviour of the Currency and Commodity markets – dominated by short term leveraged ‘noise traders’ and seeing a clear possibility that they are going to trigger the asset allocators.

We talk of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and in doing so note that economic and political power has always coincided with the ability to gain access to the essential raw materials and components of the time

Nate Silver, the political pundit wrote a bestselling book in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis called the Signal and the Noise, with the subtitle ‘Why so many predictions fail, and some don’t”.

As we noted in Wednesday Wanderer’s Wonderings, one of the biggest differences for markets between a Biden or Trump Presidency is likely to be that the former will embrace the concept of a Green New Deal and by extension ESG investing, whereas the latter will continue to resist it.

Many observers will have spotted the sudden (and repeated) use of the expression “Build back better” in both the UK and the US.