FX markets always have a narrative. Right now the obvious one is that strength of the $ can be attributed to a simple relative interest rates model, so it’s all about the Fed. But they may also be telling us that the spike in prices is less worrying for markets than the spike in volatility which is forcing deleveraging across fixed income and alternatives – and thus the bid for $ may reflect distress.

Amid all the discussions about the sanctions – and counter sanctions- against Russia, an extremely important issue is rearing its head; what is the future of the Petro-Dollar?

The job vacancies created by the ‘unexpected early retirements’ of two Fed Presidents seen as Hawkish on Monetary Policy may well be seen as an important catalyst for US fixed income and currency traders, but history may instead see these changes as an important catalyst in a populist resurgence and a pushback against Crony Capitalism and the behaviour of the 1%

The following is based on an article submitted to the Australian Financial Review for this weekend. As such it obviously has an Australian angle, but one that is also important for investors understanding how the new RCEP trade bloc is also going to transform the way capital flows in the Asiatic region and the new role that the Yuan and currencies like the AUD will play

August is normally the start of the quiet period in western markets with many investment managers working from home for a few weeks while the families enjoy a break from school.