The liquidity tide is going out. The relief rally from the middle of March has completely unwound, leaving April as one of the worst performing months in Equity markets for years -especially in the NASDAQ.

Ronald Reagan once said that the scariest words in the English language were ‘I’m from the government and I am here to help” and in our view there is no doubt that there is little that is more dangerous than a bureaucrat with a mission

April marks the start of the second quarter as well as the start of the new financial year for many and while the Ukraine crisis has thrown up new challenges – not least in eating as well as heating – most of the issues we now face were already underway and have just been accelerated by the events and the responses to them.

Much as we like to attribute moves in markets to ‘the news’, more often than not it is the more prosaic elements of portfolio rebalancing and dealer positioning that are the actual driving forces. Post the latest option expiry, this certainly seems to be the case as we explain in a short post.

Vladimir Putin’s adoption of established ‘Western’ tactics of Regime Change does not mean two wrongs make a right, not at all, but it does suggest that many other regimes will change as a result, regardless of how quickly things are resolved.