The Good news is that Covid-19 is over, for now at least, rates are falling everywhere and excess death measurements reveal that in most countries 2020 has been ‘nothing unusual’ .

While the short term uncertainties around not only the virus itself but also the assorted governments’ response to it remain the same, the medium term risk profile for markets continues to shift away from potential instability of illiquid markets towards real instability of Geo-politics, in particular the ratcheting up of Cold War rhetoric from the US towards China.

Things That Won’t Be Coming Back…– for a while at least

Markets are in the ‘Did I miss it’? phase, wondering if the rally from the end March lows will now be followed by a long period of consolidation or a return to previous lows.

Most of Europe is keeping its borders closed, while Hong Kong has basically banned visitors and any returning residents are effectively being placed under very close house arrest for a fortnight on returning.