Please note that you are about to leave the website of Market Thinking and be redirected to Toscafund Hong Kong. For further information, please contact Toscafund Hong Kong.
When we see an unexpected event in markets, there is a tendency to quickly check ‘What Happened Last Time?’ (WHLT).
At the start of the year we assumed that the biggest rise in market uncertainty would be due to US politics and that this would begin with the Democratic Primaries.
So in the end the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party ended up doing more damage to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party than to Boris Johnson’s Tories.
I had booked my flights for a pre-Christmas visit to London before it was announced that there would be a General Election in the UK on December 12th. As such I find myself here on a highly significant day for the UK economy.
The sudden escalation of violence in Hong Kong and the dramatic and telegenic use of incendiary devices ensured that Hong Kong dominated the global 24/7 news cycle over the last two weeks, culminating in an Alamo style standoff at one of the Hong Kong Universities over the weekend.